Swirling polar vortex linked to deadly cluster of storms in 2022, say UK scientists

Scientists say a "swirling polar vortex" miles above the Earth caused three deadly storms in the UK and Ireland, which brought severe flooding and record wind speeds.

Four people lost their lives when Dudley, Eunice and Franklin hit in February 2022, and 1.4 million households were left without electricity.

It was the first time three named storms have been recorded within a seven-day period since the storm-naming system began in 2015.

Researchers have concluded the cluster was connected to stronger winds in the Arctic stratosphere.

The finding, published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, show there was an extremely strong stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) - a large spinning mass of cold air in the stratosphere around 15 miles above the Arctic - in February 2022.

Scientists said the strong SPV made it up to three times more likely there would be intense storms affecting the UK and northern Europe during the month.

The results also showed that the strong SPV increased the likelihood of three or more storms reaching the UK in a single week by around 80% compared with when the SPV is normal.

Researchers now believe this could help forecasters assess when there is an increased risk of storm clusters up to a month before they happen.

Lead author Dr Ryan Williams, who carried out the research while at the University of Leeds, said: "Being able to provide early warnings of possible severe weather is all the more pertinent with climate change."

"There is evidence that major winter storms will become more intense, exacerbating impacts such as flooding and wind damage," he added.

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A total of seven storms were tracked near the UK during February 2022, the fourth-highest number during February since 1979.

Storm Eunice, which hit on 18 February, was described as a once-in-a-decade event and the most severe since 2014.

Wind gusts of 122mph were registered at The Needles on the Isle of Wight, a record high for England.

Researchers say that the signs of a strong SPV was evident from forecasts carried out as early as November 2021. It means that potentially spotting these conditions could help better predict extreme weather in future.

Co-author Jeff Knight, from the UK's Met Office, said: "It's been understood for a while that the Arctic stratosphere can affect the type of winter we get in the UK, but these results show that it can even affect the occurrence of stormy spells within the season.

"An intense stratospheric polar vortex can now be recognised as a warning to forecasters of increased risks of damaging storms.

"This was likely seen in the most recent winter, around the time of storm Eowyn in late January [2025]," he said.

When Eowyn struck, the Met Office warned it posed a "greater risk of storm clustering".